Soft US JOLTS numbers could see the Dollar hand back gains – ING
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is now trading above 105.00 and is at its strongest level since the middle of last November. Economists at ING analyze USD outlook.
JOLTS data in focus
Any reversal in this dollar strength (if it does come) will have to be data-driven. In addition to this Friday's release of March NFP job numbers, we would pick out today's JOLTS (job opening figures) as an important data release this week.
Markets expect a slightly lower JOLTS job opening figure today, but any sharp slowing in the job vacancy rate would suggest a much better balance in the jobs market and less pressure for higher wages. We see this data as a potential market mover which, if soft, could reverse some of the Dollar gains seen late last week.
Unless, however, today's JOLTS data does come in soft, wider US rate differentials warn that DXY can comfortably trade above the 105.00 area through the early part of the week.